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ERCOT is meeting record demand with solar, wind, and batteries

Texas demand keeps rising—driven by population growth, industry, and new data centers. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), from January–September 2025 ERCOT demand rose 5% versus the same period in 2024 (to 372 TWh) and is up 23% since 2021. Over those months, wind and solar together supplied 36% of ERCOT’s electricity needs, with utility-scale solar producing 45 TWh (+50% year-over-year) and wind producing 87 TWh (+4% year-over-year).

• Midday solar surged in Summer 2025: average 24 GW between noon–1 p.m., up from ~12 GW in 2023. Natural gas’ midday share fell from 50% (2023) to 37% (2025).
• Evening balancing: grid‑scale batteries averaged about 4 GW of supply at 8 p.m. during the summer months of 2025.
• EIA forecasts demand to grow another 14% in early 2026 (Jan–Sep), reaching about 425 TWh.

Big picture: natural gas remains the largest single source of generation, but its share has edged down as solar expands. This is a classic “solar midday, gas evening” pattern, now increasingly complemented by batteries.

What this means for customers

• Daytime bargains: When solar output is high, wholesale prices often soften. If your plan has time‑of‑use elements, shifting laundry, dishwashers, or EV charging to earlier in the day can lower bills.
• Evening peaks: As the sun sets, demand and prices can climb. Batteries help, but evenings are still the tightest hours.
• Plan shopping: Compare plans based on your usage pattern. If you’re at home mid‑day, a plan that rewards daytime use may help. If you’re evening‑heavy, look for strong bill‑credit tiers and transparent base charges.