ERCOT’s 2025 surge: solar, wind, and batteries meet more demand

Key takeaways from EIA’s latest ERCOT snapshot

Wind + solar met 36% of ERCOT demand in the first nine months of 2025—an all‑time high.
Utility‑scale solar output rose 50% year over year to 45 TWh (Jan–Sep 2025), nearly four times what it produced in the same period of 2021.
Wind generation reached 87 TWh (Jan–Sep 2025), up ~4% versus 2024 and ~36% versus 2021.
Battery storage is expanding and increasingly helps shift mid‑day solar to the evening peak.

These trends reflect a rapid buildout of solar capacity across Texas and steady improvements in wind performance—especially during shoulder seasons—paired with fast‑growing grid‑scale batteries. The practical result is that ERCOT can serve a larger share of demand with zero‑fuel resources while keeping thermal plants available for reliability.

Why this matters for Texas customers

As renewables scale, they shape both wholesale prices and retail plan design. Mid‑day solar generation often pushes real‑time prices down; evenings frequently see the opposite as demand stays high and solar fades. Batteries help bridge that gap, and retailers increasingly tailor plans to this “duck curve” reality.

Plan structure: Time‑of‑use add‑ons, bill‑credit thresholds, and indexed products are more common, rewarding customers who can shift usage to low‑price hours.
Bill stability: More diverse generation—including wind, solar, and storage—can reduce exposure to fuel price spikes over time.
Resiliency: Batteries and flexible demand give the grid more tools to manage peak conditions and sudden ramps.

Background: Texas’s renewable energy rise

Texas has been a wind powerhouse for years and is now a national leader in solar growth. Utility‑scale solar and rapidly expanding small‑scale systems have lifted solar’s contribution from a niche to a meaningful slice of statewide generation. Wind remains the largest renewable contributor, and together with solar, renewables deliver close to one‑third of Texas’s utility‑scale generation on an annualized basis, with much higher shares during certain hours and seasons.

The state’s vast resource quality, abundant land, competitive wholesale market, and strong transmission buildouts—especially into the best wind and solar regions—have all accelerated the build. ERCOT’s real‑time market sends price signals that attract private investment, while federal incentives and falling technology costs continue to improve project economics.

What EIA’s new article shows

EIA’s latest Today in Energy piece highlights just how quickly the mix is changing in 2025. Wind and solar supplied 36% of ERCOT demand through September, helped by a surge in utility‑scale solar output. Solar generation during the first nine months reached 45 TWh, up 50% year over year, and nearly quadruple its output from the same period in 2021. Wind generation also grew to 87 TWh—about 4% higher than 2024 and ~36% above the same 2021 period.

That solar growth is not just about more panels; it’s also about timing. Mid‑day output aligns with Texas’s daytime cooling load for much of the year, and newer battery projects are increasingly shifting some of that energy into the evening peak. Combined, these resources allow ERCOT to meet record demand while containing fuel costs and emissions intensity.

How this plays out on the grid

On typical spring and fall days, wind and solar can meet a very large share of demand for long stretches. In the summer, massive daytime solar production reduces afternoon net load and lowers wholesale prices; wind then tends to pick up later in the day and into the night, while batteries discharge during the steepest ramps. Over the first three quarters of 2025, these dynamics helped ERCOT cover rising demand with cleaner resources while maintaining reliability.

Tips: make the most of the new energy mix

Run big appliances earlier: Shift laundry, dishwashers, and EV charging into late morning or early afternoon when prices are often lower.
Use smart thermostats: Pre‑cool homes before the evening peak; many utilities and retailers offer demand‑response programs.
Shop plan details: Look for plans that align with your usage pattern—time‑of‑use, bill‑credit tiers, or solar buyback if you have rooftop PV.

Texas renewable energy at a glance

Leadership in wind: Texas is consistently the top state for wind generation.
Rapid solar growth: Utility‑scale and small‑scale solar capacity has expanded quickly, lifting solar’s share of in‑state generation.
Roughly a third renewables (utility‑scale) on average: Monthly data in 2025 show renewables frequently near or above the 30% mark of utility‑scale generation, with higher shares in certain hours.

What to watch next

Storage buildout: ERCOT’s battery fleet is expanding, improving ramp coverage and frequency response.
Transmission: New lines and upgrades can unlock more hours of low‑cost renewable energy and reduce curtailment.
Load growth: Data centers and industrial facilities are reshaping load shapes; flexible demand will matter more.

References

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “ERCOT increasingly meets rising demand with solar, wind, and batteries,” Today in Energy, Oct. 24, 2025. eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66464
EIA, Texas State Energy Profile (Analysis). eia.gov/state/analysis.php?sid=TX
EIA, Texas State Energy Profile (Data). eia.gov/state/data.php?sid=TX
ERCOT Generation Dashboard (wind/solar). ercot.com/gridinfo/generation

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